What we said last week, and what held

The Scoreboard · Ins7ghts Daily, Friday 9 October 2026

Twenty-one forward calls went out in the last seven days, one for each What's Coming item from 2 to 8 October. Here is the grade.

Tally: 21 calls: 0 right, 0 wrong, 4 not a real call, 17 still open

A week with no wrong verdicts is a warning, not a success. This one has a plain cause: almost every call carries a horizon in 2027, so nothing could come due yet. Still open is the default and it stays the default until a published event settles it, which leaves seventeen of them sitting there.

Four were not calls at all. They name both outcomes, or they describe the present in future tense. No published event can settle any of them, and that is the verdict:

• "Metadata becomes the bottleneck nobody budgeted for" (2 October), closing on the teams who "will look like geniuses in 2027". Nothing can make that true or false.
• "Frontier models start competing on price" (2 October): once capability competes on price, model choice becomes a procurement decision. The sentence is its own premise.
• "Your chip supplier starts lending you the money" (3 October). The vendor loans had already been announced when I wrote it. Describing a thing again is not forecasting it.
• "Hardware becomes a credit story" (4 October), same shape. The chips were already moving onto balance sheets in the article I was reading.

Four out of twenty-one written so they cannot lose. That is this week's miss and it is mine, not the market's.